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This timeline is a chart of expected [[Everstorm]] arrival times, along with an explanation of the calculations involved. |
This timeline is a chart of expected [[Everstorm]] arrival times, along with an explanation of the calculations involved. |
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= Everstorm Arrival Times = |
== Everstorm Arrival Times == |
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The Everstorm's arrival at different locations can be predicted based on the typical cycle. The tenth Everstorm arrived approximately 4 days early and the regular cycle seems to have resumed with the eleventh Everstorm. |
The Everstorm's arrival at different locations can be predicted based on the typical cycle. The tenth Everstorm arrived approximately 4 days early and the regular cycle seems to have resumed with the eleventh Everstorm. |
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| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10| |
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10|4}} <small>(15:16)</small> |
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| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10| |
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10|5}} <small>(1:17)</small> |
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| {{ref|group=Note|text=It's unclear whether the Everstorm followed it's usual rate directly after it was initially summoned.}} |
| {{ref|group=Note|text=It's unclear whether the Everstorm followed it's usual rate directly after it was initially summoned.}} |
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<references group=Note/> |
<references group=Note/> |
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= Basis and Assumptions = |
== Basis and Assumptions == |
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[[File:OB Roshar - Everstorm Calculations.png|thumb|300px|Assumed path of the Everstorm]] |
[[File:OB Roshar - Everstorm Calculations.png|thumb|300px|Assumed path of the Everstorm]] |
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For detailed calculations, see [[User:Jofwu]]'s [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRPLWz6JlSLU0dis9L5pv0jd7kvNIIgqu3VUsEQdq5E/edit#gid=154652229 spreadsheet]. |
For detailed calculations, see [[User:Jofwu]]'s [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRPLWz6JlSLU0dis9L5pv0jd7kvNIIgqu3VUsEQdq5E/edit#gid=154652229 spreadsheet]. |
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= Sample Calculation = |
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This section walks through the calculation for the Everstorm's first arrival at [[Urithiru]]. |
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Urithiru is located at 21.0 Rosharan degrees South and 4.0 Rosharan degrees East, or (-21.0, -4.0). We divide by 200 and multiply by 360 to convert to degrees: (-37.8, -7.2). Next we convert to Cartesian coordinates, taking the XY plane as the equatorial plane, +Z as the northern hemisphere, and Y=0 as the Prime Meridian. Urithiru's coordinates corresponds to a unit vector of: (0.78392, -0.09903, -0.61291). |
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The next step is to rotate to a coordinate system with the XY plane as the great circle path of the Everstorm. That plane is defined by the locations referenced above. In Rosharan degrees, these are northern Shinovar (-9, -25) and Dawn's Shadow (-13, 33). We rotate these coordinates such that Dawn's Shadow is located at (1,0,0). Applying the same rotation to Urithiru gives a unit vector of: (0.95433, -0.19377, -0.22738). |
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This is then converted back to a "longitude" (angle along the great circle, starting from Dawn's Shadow) and "latitude" (angle of separation perpendicular to the great circle), before one final rotation which sets Narak at zero degrees "longitude". Urithiru's final "position" (the "longitude", or angle along the great circle) is 308.9 degrees, indicating that the Everstorm travels 308.9 degrees around Roshar from Narak to Urithiru. It's final "distance" (the "latitude", or angle normal to the great circle) is -13.1 degrees, indicating that Urithiru is 13.1 degrees "below" the center of the Everstorm's path. |
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Calculations for the arrival of the first Everstorm at Hearthstone indicate that the storm was summoned at 12:11 UTC (local time at the Prime Meridian). At a rate of 9.1 days per cycle (or 1.978 degrees per hour), the Everstorm crosses the 308.9 degrees to Urithiru in 7.81 days. Thus, the Everstorm began at 12:11 UTC on {{Rosharan date|1173|10|10|3}} and reached Urithru at 8:19 UTC on {{Rosharan date|1174|1|2|1}}. Urithiru's longitude (4 Rosharan degrees West) places the local time at 0:20 behind UTC. This gives a local arrival time of 7:49 on {{Rosharan date|1174|1|2|1}}. |
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<references/> |
<references/> |
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