Difference between revisions of "User:Jofwu/Everstorm"

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This timeline is a chart of expected [[Everstorm]] arrival times, along with an explanation of the calculations involved.
 
=== Basis and Assumptions ===
 
[[File:OB Roshar - Everstorm Calculations.png|thumb|300px]]
The final step is to synchronize this model with the timing observed. The most precise data point we know of concerning this was provided by [[Kaladin]], who stated that the Everstorm passed "around noon" on the day he arrived in [[Hearthstone]]. Thus we use {{Rosharan date|1174|1|2|2}} at noon (local time) in Hearthstone as our basis for the rest of the timing. Observations of other Everstorm arrival times appear to match this observation by Kaladin within a reasonable margin of error.
 
For detailed calculations, see [[User:Jofwu]]'s [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRPLWz6JlSLU0dis9L5pv0jd7kvNIIgqu3VUsEQdq5E/edit#gid=154652229 spreadsheet].
=== Everstorm Arrival Times ===
 
=== Everstorm Arrival Times ===
 
The Everstorm's arrival at different locations can be predicted based on the typical cycle. The tenth Everstorm arrived approximately 4 days early and the regular cycle seems to have resumed with the eleventh Everstorm.
 
The times provided assume a 20-hour clock, with "20:00" as midnight and "10:00" as noon, and use 50 minutes per hour. Dates follow the typical Rosharan convention of 10 months per year, 10 weeks per month, and 5 days per week. All times are highly speculative, as the precise timing depends on the accuracy of the assumptions made and (more importantly) on the imprecise and variable nature of the Everstorm's movement.
 
{| class=infobox
|- class=title
! Everstorm Cycle !! Shinovar !! Azimir !! Urithiru !! Vedenar !! Thaylen City !! Kholinar !! Narak !! New Natanan !! Notes
|-
!0
| N/A
| N/A
| N/A
| N/A
| N/A
| N/A
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10|4}} <small>(15:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1173|10|10|5}} <small>(1:17)</small>
| {{ref|group=Note|text=It's unclear whether the Everstorm followed it's usual rate directly after it was initially summoned.}}
|-
!1
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|2|2}} <small>(17:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|2|3}} <small>(3:17)</small>
|
|-
|!2
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|3|4}} <small>(morning8:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|3|5}} <small>(midday2:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|43|15}} <small>(afternoon9:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|4|21}} <small>(morning3:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|4|1}} <small>(4:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|4|1}} <small>(14:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|4|1}} <small>(19:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|4|2}} <small>(5:17)</small>
|
|-
|!3
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|5|3}} <small>(midday10:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|5|4}} <small>(afternoon4:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|5|54}} <small>(afternoon11:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|65|15}} <small>(morning5:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|5|5}} <small>(6:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|5|5}} <small>(16:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|6|1}} <small>(1:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|6|1}} <small>(7:17)</small>
|
|-
|!4
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|2}} <small>(afternoon12:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|3}} <small>(afternoon6:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|43}} <small>(evening13:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|54}} <small>(midday7:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|4}} <small>(8:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|4}} <small>(18:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|5}} <small>(3:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|7|5}} <small>(9:17)</small>
|
|-
|!5
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|1}} <small>(afternoon14:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|2}} <small>(evening8:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|32}} <small>(night15:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|43}} <small>(midday9:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|3}} <small>(10:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|4}} <small>(20:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|4}} <small>(5:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|1|9|4}} <small>(11:17)</small>
|
|-
|!6
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|0|5}} <small>(evening16:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|1}} <small>(night10:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|21}} <small>(night17:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|32}} <small>(afternoon11:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|2}} <small>(12:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|3}} <small>(2:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|3}} <small>(7:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|1|3}} <small>(13:17)</small>
|
|-
|!7
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|2|4}} <small>(night18:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|32|15}} <small>(after midnight12:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|32|25}} <small>(after midnight19:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|3|21}} <small>(evening13:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|3|1}} <small>(14:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|3|2}} <small>(4:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|3|2}} <small>(9:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|3|2}} <small>(15:17)</small>
|
|-
|!8
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|4|4}} <small>(after midnight20:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|4|54}} <small>(early morning14:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|4|5|1}} <small>(early morning1:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|54|15}} <small>(night15:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|4|5}} <small>(16:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|5|1}} <small>(6:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|5|1}} <small>(11:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|5|1}} <small>(17:17)</small>
|
|-
|!9
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|3}} <small>(early morning2:01)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|43}} <small>(morning16:45)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|54}} <small>(morning3:49)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|54}} <small>(night17:09)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|4}} <small>(18:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|5}} <small>(8:04)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|5}} <small>(13:16)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|6|5}} <small>(19:17)</small>
|
|-
!10
|10{{ref|group=notes|text=The tenth Everstorm arrived 4 days early and traveled across most of the continent within a day.}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|7|5}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|7|5}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|7|5}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|7|5}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|7|5}}
| N/A
| N/A
| N/A
|10 {{ref|group=notesNote|text=The tenth Everstorm arrived 4 days early and traveled across most of the continent within a day. It did not continue past Thaylen City.}}
|-
!11
|11{{ref|group=notes|text=The regular Everstorm cycle seems to have resumed with the eleventh storm.}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|2}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|2}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|3}} <small>(morning)</small>
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|4}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|4}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|4}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|4/5}}
| {{Rosharan numeric date|1174|2|9|5}}
|11{{ref|group=notesNote|text=The regular Everstorm cycle seems to have resumed with the eleventh storm, though the exact timing is uncertain. It appears to have arrived in Urithiru in the morning.}}
|}
<references group=notesNote/>
 
== Notes ==
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